First encounters are often quite awkward. An army of pizza delivery men could personally attest to this. Incidentally, I’ve never had my pizza delivered by a woman. I must be black-listed, or something…
Yes, awkward. A word that we wouldn’t naturally assign to our as yet unmet extraterrestrial brethren. Nonetheless, I think an intergalactic super-species might be a tad embarrassed upon greeting us with a friendly “hello”, and getting our maths homework in response . Conversely, we might feel slightly deflated that our long-awaited alien friend turns out to be a primordial slime from Europia. It’s more awkward for the slime really.
Yet all this is conjecture. And look! More conjecture up ahead! Lucky you. The following list is ranked from most likely to least likely. If you’re beginning to wonder what authority I have to make such a list, I studied philosophy and you’re a baboon for reading this far.
1. The Universe is Too Big
A 2D, infrared map of the entire Universe. And no, the bit in the middle isn’t God
The universe is rather large, in case you needed reminding. Our closest neighboring system, Alpha Centauri, lies a miniscule 4.37 light years away from us. That's roughly 25.6 trillion miles in Earth terms. I’m leaving out the zeroes of course. All twelve of them.
That’s really quite close! Assuming that we can get anything bigger than a light particle to reach those kinds of speeds (unlikely), we’d still be quite alive upon reaching our destination.
Of course there is the small matter of the micro-meteorites that might hit us on the way, the lack of an external power source, long periods exposed to cosmic radiation, the prospect of making baby in space, and the fact that 25.6 trillion miles is a laughably short distance to travel. Space isn’t designed for us. We must design for it. That might take some time.
And so the argument goes, that by the time any species reaches the point at which interstellar travel is possible, they’ll have either long been squished or have squashed themselves. This leaves us with a universe of brief sparks. Life sprouts into existence on an infinitude of lucky planets, has it’s moment in the sun, and then withers in a short space of time, leaving nothing.
Personally, I don’t buy the theory. We paste our own insecurities and ineptitudes onto it. The universe is also very old. Alien civilizations have had a long time in which to advance. Surely a meteorite could have avoided one? Surely one could have resisted the temptation to exact devastation upon itself?
Ask a Roman Trireme commander to cross the Atlantic Ocean. He won’t react much, given he’s a skull. But if he could, I’m sure he’d laugh his jawbone off. Looking at history as a precedent has its limits, but 25.6 Trillion miles could be a short trip down the shops, given time.
2. The Aliens are Simply Watching
Sinister bastard...
I watch a lot of nature documentaries. Increasingly, they are more about conservation than anything else. The first documentary of this kind to be shown on the BBC was called Zoo Quest and first ran in 1954. It featured a young David Attenborough.
The name wasn’t just meant to be catchy. They certainly captured the animals on camera... it’s just afterwards they captured them again for zoos. I can only imagine the moment they stopped filming the beautiful tropical bird, and a beady eyed Attenborough squawked “RIGHT, GET HIM!”.
Of course that would be dead wrong now. Modern conservationists understand that the intention should always be to let the animal behave as naturally as possible. Their habitat does not equate to ours, and we rob them of their own fulfillment by forcing ours on them. Like teaching a monkey how to smoke a cigar.
You can see where I’m going with this. We are indeed the duck-billed platypus. We could well lie within an astral ‘National Park’, left to our own devices in order to evolve naturally.
Whether we are being watched is another question, and it’s answer depends partly on your level of narcissism. While they may not be watching you, they are certainly watching me. We should at least hope they are keeping a close enough eye on us to swat away any pesky meteorites. They certainly aren't answering prayers anyway.
3. The Aliens are Sleeping/ Can't be Bothered
If the red pill means a lifetime spent as a jockey’s right testicle… I think I’ll stick with the fantasy
Artificial reality still seems like the kind of concept that belongs strictly to blockbuster films. This is despite the fact most of us experience it every night upon falling asleep.
Still, if the advent of the internet has shown us anything, it’s that many of us are quite happy to spend hours in another reality. A teenage me would always need a friendly exchange on MSN before ever daring to meet a girl IRL. Twenty-something me feels much the same, but reacts to facebook like a fart in a sleeping bag.
The primary problem with the real world is that everything ends up being so final. Every poignant decision has both success and failure lying ahead in the mists of possibility. Some might say this makes life beautiful… that is until they mess things up and have to live with the consequences.
If you decide to try your hand at free-running across the tops of skyscrapers, you won’t get a second life should you end up splattering the pavement with your ambition. An artificial reality doesn't share this problem. We write the rules and can always load the calculations in our favour.
If we assume E.T is much more advanced than us, then we can pretty much guarantee he’ll have the ability to see this concept to its fruition. Why bother actually travelling halfway across the universe when you can simply build your own? Why bother settling for anything less than a virtual heaven?
If you’re the more spiritual type, you might even say that they’ve gone and ‘ascended’. Where to, is anyone’s guess; The Fourth Dimension, Nirvana, or the space under the car seat that eats all your change.
Of course you could argue that reality is far more fulfilling in a deep and meaningful way. The enduring popularity of soap-operas on T.V flies in the face of that theory.
4. We Are the Aliens
This is entirely relevant, and in the interest of Science I advise that you study it closely
I always find it mind-boggling that the earth is 4.54 billion years old. Given that the age of the universe is 13.8 billion, this means that our wrinkly planet has been around for almost a third of all time.
This might get you wondering when the first planets formed. With modern telescopes we can now detect planets in other stellar systems. We do this by measuring the amount of wobble that a planet’s gravity generates on a host star.
You need to be a pretty significant lump of mass to make a star wobble. A planet is one of the only objects that has the arrogance to accumulate this kind of mass. The oldest planet that we’ve found so far is a whopping 12.8 billion years old. So maybe we are (relatively) young, after all?
Finding a planet is one thing, finding a rocky planet is another entirely. All of the earliest planets we have discovered have been gas giants. Once again, we have wobbling to thank for this knowledge. But if we’re looking for life, finding a rocky planet is crucial.
Rocky planets are composed of heavy elements (in essence, anything other than hydrogen and helium). Stars only produce these on their deathbed. Like a miserable relative giving a heartfelt reconciliation on theirs. Except with a colossal explosion.
It seems pretty safe to assume that life requires these heavy elements, as well as a solid surface, in order to evolve. While it is true plenty of lifeforms ‘have gas’, we’ve yet to discover a lifeform composed entirely of it. Politicians notwithstanding.
So rocky planets are generally young in universal terms, and although unlikely, it is possible that the Earth could be one of the ‘first born’, at least within our neck of the galaxy. Our neighbourhood sits in the outer rim, where stars are younger, and more sparsely distributed. Intelligent alien life might exist here, but it could still be at a primitive stage.
5. We Alone
Oh this suburban life…
Science has told us again and again that this is highly unlikely. Only the most religious would argue that we are special enough to have stewardship over the entire universe. Yet until we find something else out there, this is the status quo. SETI (the Search for Extraterrestrial Life) is merely an expensive project that listens to space drone on about itself.
Let’s not get too down about this though. No neighbours means no noise complaints, no cats pooping in our solar system, and no independence day style mass invasions of our planet. We still have each other after all.
Individual humans are alien enough in personality anyway, and until we can learn to get along with our own species, perhaps it’s best we haven’t found any little grey dudes yet.